This tendency is illustrated by the recent cluster of consecutive exceptionally hot and dry summers of. Europe has seen a particularly strong increase in heat extremes since the deadly summer 2003 heatwave 4, 5, which is estimated to have caused ~70,000 excess deaths 6. Heat extremes have increased on a global scale over recent decades and are expected to further increase under future global warming 1, 2, 3. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability.
This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures.
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